Petaminx Puzzle for Sale

Now this looks amazing.



It's for sale. Anyone have a few thou lying about and want to help me out?

Wolfram Sets the Timer, Will Blow Away Factual Search in May

Go take a look at Wolfram Alpha.



It's a "computational knowledge engine." Sounds impressive, doesn't it? It definitely has the potential to completely blow away any factual search engine that has come previously, of which the most prominent example may be Powerset.

The brains behind this, Stephen Wolfram, is an acclaimed computer scientist that has had many incredible creations already, including the heavily used software package Mathematica, which adds jaw-dropping features in every release, and the stunning if controversial book A New Kind of Science, so he definitely has the background and the resources to create a good factual search engine. In fact, Wolfram has frequently posited, both in A New Kind of Science, and other sources, that he believes computation can be a valid representation of knowledge and science. Hence, Wolfram Alpha is based on what VentureBeat describes well as "terabytes of curated data and millions of lines of algorithms" to create a representation of computable human knowledge.

While I can't say anything to the efficacy of this--it may blow all of us away come May, or it could be the next Cuil--it will definitely be a step forward in the problem of factual search. With Wolfram's entire focus behind this project, and with the concession that this is still a work in progress, I do hope that this will actually work much better than Powerset (which is not to say anything bad about Powerset--they were a little underwhelming, but technically, I can see the incredible technology and useful research that went into building it).

If anyone can get me early access to Wolfram Alpha, I would owe you a big one.

We Are All Going to Explode

Do a Google search for "Yellowstone." The first result is is the National Park Service's official Yellowstone National Park web site, as expected. The second site is yellowstone.net, which promises to help you "plan your yellowstone vacation." Still as expected. But the third is for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. Wait, what? Isn't Yellowstone a volcanically inactive geothermal cluster? Why can't we see black lava flows like on Kilauea or even St. Helens?

The answer is complicated, but in a sentence, Yellowstone sits on top of a volcanic hot spot that enjoys blowing up in a "supereruption" every few hundreds of thousands of years, but in the meantime, keeps itself fit by spewing geysers, unleashing thousands of earthquakes, and triggering hydrothermal explosions.

Those supereruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and 640,000 years ago. Do some simple math, and you realize that we are approaching time for another one of these eruptions if the pattern of previous eruptions holds. So let's look at three things: (1) What warning systems do we have? (2) How likely is it that Yellowstone will explode, and will the warning systems catch it? and (3) What will happen if it does?

So. Warning Systems. In this respect, Yellowstone has the best in the world. It is classified by the US Geologic Survey (USGS) as a high-risk area, and is being studied by numerous universities and research organizations. It is watched by thousands of seismometers, sensor arrays, GPS devices, and satellites for any slight change.  If you are the paranoid type, just go to any of dozens of Yellowstone monitoring sites, and you will get your fill of self-perpetuated fear.

Second. Likeliness. Looking at earthquake activities, Yellowstone hasn't changed much in recorded history. Every so often, there is an "earthquake swarm," in which hundreds of small earthquakes happen in a matter of days or weeks. This happens every dozen or two years, but the one in late 2008 caught national attention, as it was one of the most powerful swarms ever recorded. This swarm was also combined with a relatively meteoric rise of the Yellowstone Caldera over the past three years--three inches per year, more than three times the maximally recorded rate of growth since measurements began in the 20s.  However, all these events are normal, and can be explained away by any of a number of reasons--hydrothermal pressure from underground lakes affected by earthquakes, geothermal effects, etc. 

So what if it explodes. Well, we are all doomed. The last eruption covered most of North America in up to a foot of ash, and dramatically changed global temperatures. There were mass local continental extinctions, and the direct effects of the explosion leveled most of what today is Wyoming, Montana, and Utah. Earthquakes of extreme magnitudes would be felt all across the world, and would destroy most buildings in North America. It's not likely that such a quake will strike, but if it does, let's just say we're in a great place to help rebuild the community afterwards.

Finally, rather than worry about the Yellowstone Caldera, perhaps a greater threat is the Long Valley Caldera, right here in California. In its last eruption, it spewed 600 cubic kilometers of rubble across the US, and very recently, there were some 6+ magnitude earthquakes coming from around there. Mounts St. Helens, Rainier, Hood, and Shasta are all close to home, and they happen to be 2, 3, 4, and 5 on the USGS's list of the most dangerous volcanic centers in the United States. Yellowstone, on the other hand, is number 21. 

Maybe I should think twice now before scaling Rainer or Shasta, and tempt fate in Yellowstone instead.

Powerful Pictures

I'd like to fancy myself as one who holds his own opinions about things. That's why I get queasy come time for end-of-the-year top-N lists. On one end, I feel like I'm allowing myself to be quasi-brainwashed by other people, but on the other end, some of these toplists are so amazing.

Fortunately, there are the lists of the "top" photographs--beau

tiful and powerful and beyond ranking. Once you view them, whether or not something should be in the top ten seems so inane.

Here are some of my favorite collections and selections:

Boston.com: The Year 2008 in Photographs -- One of the most amazing collections of photographs I have ever seen.

TIME Pictures of the Year 2008 -- With an obvious emphasis on news events.

The Sydney Morning Herald Pictures of the Year -- Music to go with the pictures, too.

Pixcetera People's Choice Awards -- Generally much more lighthearted than the previous three, but there are some repeats.

Antarctic Weather

I am wowed. I will never consider last week's temperature of -25°F cold ever again.

Minority Report Comes to Life

A clip from Minority Report? No. It's real.

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

Oblong is apparently the company that advised the production staff of Minority Report on the technology of the film, with much of their expertise derived from the founders' research at the MIT Media Lab. Oblong promises to "fundamentally chnage the way people use machines at work, in the living room, in conference rooms, in vehicles."